Eljött Orbán Viktor fekete napja: már csak órái maradhattak a rezsimnek

MTI Fotó/Miniszterelnöki Sajtóiroda/Szecsődi Balázs

A vég

15 órakor 53,64%. Jól jegyezzék meg ezt a számot, mert ez mindennél fontosabb. Délután háromkor már több mint 50%-os volt a részvétel. Ha így folytatjuk, nem lehetetlen, hogy urnazárásra

a részvétel elérheti az álommagasságnak számító 73-75%-os sávot.

Orbán Viktor számára ez a legrosszabb hír, ami csak létezik. Pontosan tudjuk ugyanis, hogy a Fidesz csak és kizárólag akkor tud nyerni, ha a választási részvétel alacsony: ilyenkor a saját szavazói elmennek, a többiek otthon maradnak. Ám nagyon úgy fest, hogy hiába minden erőlködős, mert az embereknél láthatóan betelt a pohár.

Akármerre nézünk, kígyózó sorokat látunk. Tömegek állnak minden egyes urnánál. Azokban a budapesti körzetekben, ahová az átjelentkezőket várják, akár 2-3 órás várakozási időkkel is számolni kell (de megéri!) és hasonló a lelkesedés a külföldi képviseleteken is. Korai lenne persze még bármilyen jóslatba bocsátkozni. De ha minden tapasztalatunkat összevetjük, akkor a legvalószínűbb az, hogy

Orbán Viktor ma megbukik.

Egy ilyen óriási részvétel mellett már szinte bizonyos, hogy megvalósulhat valamelyik az alábbi forgatókönyvek közül:

  • alkotmányozó többséget szereznek a baloldaliak közösen vagy a jobbikkal együtt
  • stabil kormányzó többséget szerez a baloldal vagy a Jobbik
  • kisebbségi kormányba szorul a Fidesz

Az első két verzió nagyjából egyértelmű, a harmadik igényel egy kis magyarázatot. Ha az a helyzet áll elő, hogy a Fidesz-KDNP képviselőinek száma száz alá csökken, de a Baloldal és a Jobbik nem akar koalícióra lépni egymással, akkor bár névleg Orbán Viktor marad a miniszterelnök, de a valódi hatalom már nem nála lesz. Azt sejtjük, hogy egy ilyen helyzetben, bár nem kormányoznának közösen, a baloldali demokratikus pártok és Jobbik nekiállnának kikényszeríteni alkotmányos reformokat (alkotmánybíróság, választási törvény, média, legfőbb ügyész, stb.), vagyis gyakorlatilag

úgy bontanák le Orbán Viktor alól a vörös bársonyszéket, hogy ő még benne ül, de nem tehet ellene semmit!

Bármelyik forgatókönyv is valósuljon meg, az egyre valószínűbb, hogy az Orbán-kormány végóráit látjuk. De ne bízzunk semmit a véletlenre! Még szűk három óra van hátra a végéből! Menjünk szavazni, ha még nem voltunk és biztassunk másokat, akiket csak elérünk! Toljuk meg a végét, úgy koppan csak nagyot a diktátor!

78 Comments

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