Megingás a Fideszben – előválasztást akarnak Orbán hívei

A nagy egység, a szervezett kormánypárt talán mégsem nyugszik olyan biztos alapokon, mint hittük. A Fidesz szavazói között bár elsőre meglepőnek tűnik az előválasztást támogatók aránya hihetetlen magas – derül ki Naszádos Péter közgazdász, stratégiai tanácsadó kutatásából.

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A Fideszre szavazók elsősorban Orbán Viktorra és a pártjukra, mint közösségre szavaznak, viszont nagyon sok esetben nem-igazán kedvelik a saját képviselőjüket. Így az előválasztást csak a 106 jelöltre értik, Orbán miniszterelnök-jelölti szerepe megkérdőjelezhetetlen.

Ha jönne egy népszerű, polgári jelölt, a Fidesz elbukhatja a választókerületi mandátumait

Akármennyire is szeretik a jobboldalon Orbán Viktort, a saját táboron belül akadnak nem túl kedvelt fideszes jelöltek is. Ők azok, akik közel vannak a tűzhöz, de a lakosság előtt nem tudtak bizonyítani. Ha velük szemben egy népszerű polgári/jobboldali/konzervatív ellenfél is feltűnik, akár az is előfordulhat, hogy bár a Fidesz megnyeri listán a számára kedvező választókerületet, de az egyéni képviselői helyét elbukja. Ez több választókerület esetén már jelentősen legyengítheti a jelenlegi kormánypártot, főleg, ha számításba vesszük a demokratikus ellenzéket is.

A baloldalon is előválasztást akarnak

Az MSZP tábora a leginkább előválasztás párti. Az ő szavazóik ugyanis mind a miniszterelnök-jelöltre, mind a 106 egyéni országgyűlésiképviselő-jelöltre szeretnének előválasztáson szavazni.

A DK szavazói mindenképp igyekezni fognak, hogy a demokratikus ellenzéki oldal elkerülje az előválasztást a 106 egyéni képviselőnél. Ugyanis náluk a legalacsonyabb az előválasztás támogatottsága, és azok is csak a miniszterelnök-jelöltről szeretnének tartani egy esetleges szavazást. Ebbe az irányba már több lépést is tettek politikusaik. A DK szavazói biztosak Gyurcsányban, hogy ő képes lesz a legjobb alkupozíciókat kicsikarni a demokratikus ellenzékből és az MSZP-ből.

Az Együtt-et támogatók épp fordítva látják, mint Gyurcsány hívei. Az Együtt szavazói egy esetleges előválasztásban (csak a 106 jelöltről, miniszterelnök-jelöltről nem), de különindulás mellett látják leginkább politikai céljaik megvalósítását. Egyrészről tisztában vannak vele, hogy egyedül nem tudnak nyerni egyéni képviselői helyet, viszont szavazóik a demokratikus ellenzék egyes szereplőire nem szívesen szavaznának egy közös listán.

A Jobbikban is inkább az előválasztást preferálnák

A Jobbik-nál Vona Gábornak is egyértelmű a miniszterelnöki-jelölti pozíciója, viszont szavazói a 106 jelöltet szívesen választanák előválasztással. Az előválasztás lehetőséget adna Vona Gábornak, hogy akár egy előválasztáson független polgáriak indításával kinyissa pártját. Ugyanis jól látható, hogy bár Vona Gábor személyének jót tett a fordulat, a Jobbikról már nem hiszik el a jelenleg pártot választani nem tudó főleg polgáriak és konzervatív baloldaliak, hogy megváltozott volna.

Naszádos Péter az Ellenszélnek elmondta, hogy január végéig minden pártnak eljuttat majd egy előválasztással kapcsolatos javaslatcsomagot, amelyet a kutatási eredményeire alapoz. Korábban mi is beszámoltunk már a közgazdász ideológiai preferenciákkal kapcsolatos eredményeiről, ezt itt olvashatjátok el.

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67 Comments

  1. Egyáltalán nem mindegy, hogy egy előválasztást milyen technikával bonyolítanának le!
    Egy többségi szavazásosban – melynek végén várhatóan csak az “erősebb kutya” szexuálhatna – nyilván nem érdekeltek a “futottak még” részvételben a kisebb “ebek”…
    Valódi támogatottság kimutatására csak egy PREFERENCIÁLIS módszerű előválasztás lehet alkalmas, amely a jelöltek tetszési sorrendbe állításával jelzi a választók “átszavazási hajlandóságát” a másod-(harmad-)lagos szimpátiáik alapján.
    Mert itt most pont nem az a kérdés, kinek nagyobb a SAJÁT tábora, (az adott választókerületben) hanem az, hogy kire hajlandó (át)szavazni a legtöbb változást akaró – akár “pártatlan”, “bizalmatlan” – ottani választó!

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